Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 10.868710 13.392156 16.232904 19.647084 23.617343 28.066678 33.406970
2025-04-20 7.329322 10.544105 14.605616 20.019892 26.945479 35.399715 46.380644
2025-04-27 5.508107 8.965897 13.742805 20.618533 30.029363 42.209824 58.880304
2025-05-04 4.381746 7.942826 13.250792 21.387235 33.139156 49.054233 71.714722
2025-05-11 3.511280 7.043608 12.690206 21.845965 35.703365 55.206425 83.907832
2025-05-18 2.743759 6.097429 11.842264 21.673795 37.221071 59.890849 94.264131
2025-05-25 2.074166 5.133787 10.761123 20.925159 37.701392 63.007117 102.474786
2025-06-01 1.633623 4.480258 10.073836 20.682225 38.868520 67.123296 112.270809
2025-06-08 1.218626 3.748384 9.091302 19.763425 38.794778 69.269355 119.170183
2025-06-15 1.040750 3.502300 8.996435 20.403856 41.343047 75.612764 132.718343
2025-06-22 0.791460 2.991127 8.254954 19.718086 41.508648 78.114048 140.386818
2025-06-29 0.687429 2.835828 8.247954 20.446396 44.217189 84.885374 155.070438
2025-07-06 0.455046 2.218061 7.101876 18.812792 42.655967 84.767308 159.265207
2025-07-13 0.366399 2.021100 6.927605 19.211085 44.978464 91.471800 175.086325
2025-07-20 0.301557 1.874412 6.845599 19.792676 47.694265 99.008033 192.645264
2025-07-27 0.253270 1.765489 6.838470 20.536726 50.783042 107.363604 211.951559
2025-08-03 0.205697 1.627798 6.714040 20.980745 53.287000 114.787877 229.977931
2025-08-10 0.154993 1.432756 6.362826 20.814093 54.492821 119.884433 244.180803
2025-08-17 0.107497 1.203414 5.828220 20.089550 54.424150 122.576195 254.253968
2025-08-24 0.078507 1.051980 5.503994 19.854469 55.382495 127.237058 267.993053
2025-08-31 0.050925 0.864219 4.976516 18.965534 54.773786 128.814761 276.211220
2025-09-07 0.041710 0.818086 4.981067 19.585121 57.676421 137.415048 297.577386
2025-09-14 0.027046 0.684380 4.573298 18.921676 57.499129 139.865158 307.671291